First, be much more selective getting in. Second, be much,
much less selective getting out. Third,
trade smaller quantities. And
fourth, never, never add to a loser. However, the fundamental problem
with these against-the-trend trading rules, as sound
as they are, is that in real life they are
extremely difficult to follow. When you trade against
the trend you will always be getting in at
an attractive price [based on recent history);
therefore, if the price does move in your favor, you
will begin to wonder if maybe the major trend might
be in the process of turning. Next you will
start to think you just might have caught
"the" top or bottom and as a result may have a really
great trade underway. Once this possibility enters
your mind you will find it extremely difficult
to get out with a moderate profit. Inevitably, you
will start to believe a huge profit may be available
if the trend really does turn, and thus will tend to
overstay your welcome. The fact is, the very
nature of against-the-trend trades tends to make it
almost impossible to follow good countertrend
trading rules.
Back in my days in the brokerage business, another
broker in our office had a client who lost
substantial amounts [high six figures and more) every
year, year in and year out. This trader
was very successful with all his other business
ventures, but in futures trading he lost consistently.
Since consistency of any kind is valuable information
in this game, occasionally I would ask his
broker about his positions. Without exception, every
time I checked, virtually every position
would be against a strong trend, and usually these
were "old" positions with big losses. My
guess is he was merely applying to futures trading
what had worked well in his businesses. He
was buying "cheap" and selling
"expensive," and then waiting for normal business cycles to correct
these "temporary" extremes. Unfortunately
for him they rarely did.
To me this trader was a minor trading "tragedy."
Here was an individual who would have made
a really great long-term trader. He had the funds to
absorb short-term moves against him and the
psychological patience [stubbornness?) and toughness
to hold on to trades for a long time; this
is the perfect combination for a long-term trader.
Unfortunately, he had the fatal flaw of insisting
countertrendcountertrend the
trend. He had to buy "cheap" and sell "expensive."
A stubborn trader with deep pockets [meaning lots of
margin) can, and almost certainly will, do
very well if he consistently positions with the trend
in any/all strong trending markets [regardless
of current relative historical price levels). Time
will always be on his side. Since he has the
patience and margin to wait for time [i.e., the
trend) to work,he will invariably do very well over
any meaningful period of time. However, that same
combination of stubbornness, lots of margin,
and consistently positioning against solid trends is
a recipe for certain failure. This approach is
virtually guaranteed to produce an almost constant
stream of big losses.
In trading it is important
to know yourself. You need to know what sort of "time span" you will
most often act upon. What I mean is that if you are a
"jumpy" or short-term trader—find it
difficult or impossible to hold positions for long
periods and instead get in and out frequently—
then you have to adjust your trading style
accordingly. Conversely, if you are a patient or longterm
trader—hold for long periods
regardless of short-term price movement—then you need
to use a trading or time style to capitalize on these
tendencies. Know yourself, then use that
knowledge to adjust your trading style accordingly.
For a trader who
insists on consistently trading against strong trends, the only possible way to
succeed
is to be an extremely
short-term trader (holding positions no longer than two or three days), as
well as be very
selective (by only positioning when momentum is clearly in your favor or you
can make an excellent
case it is about to turn in your favor). One of the worst trading styles is
to be a long-term
trader who consistently trades against strong trends.
This combination will
inevitably result in
consistent, big losses. Quite logically, this means the opposite combination
would have an excellent
chance for success.
Time always
"favors the trend, meaning over time the odds favor the price eventually
moving in
the direction of the
existing trend—i.e., continuation is more likely than change. The stronger
and more established
the trend, the more likely this will turn out to be true. Therefore, as long
as the individual
mentioned above continues to use the approach of holding long-term positions
against strong trends,
he is virtually guaranteed to keep losing substantial amounts.
On the other hand, some
of the biggest trading profits I have personally witnessed were produced
by a client of mine (in
the late 1970s when I was a broker with E. F. Hutton). This trader
used virtually the
exact opposite approach to the one mentioned above. He too was a buy(and
occasionally sell-) and-hold trader. He looked for markets that were clearly
trending,
preferably up, and then
positioned with this trend. While he did not actually look at a chart
to find strong trending
markets (he was not a chart person), by personal preference he sought
to be positioned in
good uptrending markets. After he took his initial position, he would then
lightly (usually only
one or two contracts at a time, sometimes up to five) add to this position
every few days.
Therefore, the longer the trend lasted the bigger his position would become.
Naturally, when he
caught a good trending market and kept slowly adding contracts, the profits
would frequently become
substantial.
Unfortunately, he too
had a fatal trading flaw. Whenever he caught a very good trending market
and built up some big
profits, he would tend to become permanently attached to the trade and
simply would not get
out even when the trend finally did change direction. The only time he
would liquidate
contracts on his good trades was either to meet margin calls or to roll over to
a
later month (when faced
with delivery). Over several years I watched his account repeatedly go
from the fifty thousand
dollar area up to the six hundred thousand dollar area, and then back
down again. He must
have made this round trip at least five or six times in the mid to late 1970s.
Then in 1979 he really
caught some good trending markets and in less than seven months ran
his equity from near
zero up to over three and a half million. (He was in on the great bull runs
gold and silver had in
late 1979, early 1980.) Sadly though, once again he proved incapable of
getting out once the
trends finally turned, and in the two months after the highs were made in
the precious metals
(January 1980) his equity dropped all the way back to almost zero (although
he did withdraw a
couple hundred thousand on the way up). He never recovered from the loss
of these giant profits;
it was just too big a psychological blow. To my knowledge he has never
been able to get a good
run going again, and rarely, if ever, trades anymore.
BOTTOM LINE ON TREND
Accept the truth.
Adhere to the natural laws of trading and just do not trade against the trend
(unless the
margin-of-error allows, and even then, only if and when the rest of the
technical
picture is clearly very
promising for a new trend direction). As an individual trader you do
not have many friends
in this tough and sometimes brutal business. However, the trend is
always sitting there
ready and willing to be your friend. All you need to do is accept this
friendship by allowing
the trend to dictate the direction you trade each market. Over any
meaningful period of
time the existing trend will be a far, far better indicator of future price
movement than you, me,
or anyone else. Therefore, you would be extremely wise if you keep
the trend as your very
best and most reliable trading friend.